TAGBILARAN CITY, Bohol (PIA) — The Provincial Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (PDRRMC) of Bohol has adopted the position of the Office of the Provincial Agriculturist (OPA) and the Department of Agriculture’s Bureau of Soils and Water Management (BSWM) backing cloud seeding to mitigate the effects of El Niño on local agriculture.
The council took the position at its most recent full-council meeting at the Capitol Ceremonial Hall.
The meeting was presided over by Provincial Administrator Asteria Caberte on behalf of Governor Erico Aristotle Aumentado.
The council heard a presentation by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) on the rising probability of a strong- to very strong El Niño by year’s end.
Citing April 20, 2026, data on conditions in the tropical Pacific, PAGASA weather forecaster Leonardo Samar said sea surface temperatures (SST) were near or below average in the central to far-western Pacific, while above-average readings were noted just west of the dateline and in the far eastern Pacific.
“For this, El Niño is 79% likely to emerge as early as June-July-August and could persist until early 2027,” he said.
In its El Niño Southern Oscillation strength outlook, PAGASA noted a 79% probability of a 0.5-degree increase in SST from June to August, and an 87% probability for the July to September season.
“In fact, by the August-September to October season, there is 63% probability that the SST gets 1.0 degree above normal, based on the state weather bureau climate model data,” Samar said.
“The sea surface temperature probability of getting 1.0 degree higher than normal is 77% on October to January 2027,” he added.
In PAGASA’s rainfall forecast through October, Samar said May recorded 137.8 millimeters (mm) of rain, which is projected to decrease to 95.3 mm in June, 92.4 mm in July, and 83.1 mm in August.
“In September, using the same climate model, there would be near-normal rainfall at 122.5 mm, while the weather bureau predicts 84 mm of rain by October,” he said.
Anticipating reduced rainfall and its effects on agricultural productivity, the PDRRMC has set aside funds for inducing rain.
Because El Niño recurs every two to seven years, the provincial government, through the OPA and the PDRRMC, has each set aside funds for cloud seeding operations, which the council said helped reduce crop losses in past dry spells.
In the Philippines, requests for cloud seeding follow a formal inter-agency process involving the BSWM, PAGASA, the requesting local government unit (LGU), the Office of Civil Defense — under which the PDRRMC falls — and the Philippine Air Force, which carries out the operational flights.
A local government unit (LGU) or the DA Regional Field Unit — which determines drought conditions based on reservoir water levels, crop damage, and requests from LGUs or farmer associations — initiates the request to the BSWM.
The BSWM then conducts a Joint Area Assessment with the requesting party and DA regional offices to determine the severity of drought conditions, target areas, availability of seedable clouds, and the expected benefits to agriculture or water supply.
The assessment team also reviews PAGASA’s meteorological evaluation to confirm whether cloud-seeding conditions exist and atmospheric conditions are favorable.
If these are met, the BSWM can release funds, and the LGU can provide counterpart funds for the operation. (Rey Anthony Chiu /PIA Bohol)
