THE current supply of rice in the province of Bohol is predicted to last from 169 to 200 days if conservation measures are in place.
Assistant Provincial Agriculturist Larry Pamugas presented to the first quarter meeting of the Provincial Disaster and Risk Reduction Management Council (PDRRMC), the figures, alongside proposed mitigation measures under the Office of the Provincial Agriculturist (OPA) for an anticipated dry spell.
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) weather forecaster Leonardo Samar said climate models project a 0.5-degree Celsius increase in ocean surface temperature between June and September, rising to 1.0 degrees between August and October, and reaching 1.5 degrees between October and January 2027.
Samar said the October-to-January period would represent the peak of the El Niño episode.
RICE SUPPLY COMPUTATION
At a per capita consumption of 105 kilograms per year, or 0.28 kilograms per day, Bohol’s daily rice requirement stands at approximately 455,105 kilograms for residents, plus an estimated 2,177 kilograms for daily tourist consumption, for a total of about 457,282 kilograms per day.
Pamugas said that with 47,244 hectares of rice lands planted at an average yield of 3.49 metric tons per hectare, the total harvest is projected at 165,881 metric tons.
After a 10% post-harvest loss deduction and a 65% milling recovery rate, net supply from the cropping harvest is approximately 96,455 metric tons, or about 95.46 million kilograms.
At current consumption rates, that translates to between 170 and 200 days of rice supply, he added.
NEXT CROPPING SEASON
The National Irrigation Administration (NIA) Region 7 said it moved the regular planting season to an earlier date to capture remaining rainfall before the dry season sets in.
NIA said its water resources remain sufficient for the current cropping season but may face constraints in the next planting period.
Of the 52,595 hectares identified as ideal for irrigation in Bohol, OPA said only about 10% can be irrigated if the drought extends for six months.
SUPPLY RISKS
Pamugas said the El Niño threat is compounded by the Middle East conflict, which has disrupted the supply of petrochemical-based products and pushed up the cost of fertilizers, seeds, and other farm inputs.
He added that agricultural recovery after a prolonged drought typically extends beyond the first quarter. (with reports from RAHC/PIA Bohol)
